I am computing the ufs-mrweather-app locally and in doing so I did compare my own simulations with the original forecast of the NCEPs. I computed
different versions of the app (v15p2, v16beta), different resolutions (1 degree, 0.5 degree, 0.25 degree) and different initialisations (GRIB, nc).
So far my simulations result in deviations from the NCSP forecasts with a significant increase in deviations after 10 days. Those discrepancies
can be for example as large as T2m of 6 degrees.
My questions are:
Is it a given that ufs-mrweather-app simulations do deviate intensely from NCEP data or is this a sure sign that my computations do contain an error?
Do you know of analysis that were done of the precision of the different models with regards to the NCEP model?
The single most confusing issue to me is that my simulations with v16beta do deliver bigger discrepancies than the simulations with v15p2.
Any input on your end is much appreciated.
Attached you will find a sample:
grid: 12° E, 51° N
red line: ncep gfs, 0.25x0.25 degree
green line: ufs-mrweather-app v15p2, initialisation nc-files, 0.5x0.5 degree